The increase is stunning: There were 279,000 more passengers on an average weekday in November 1998 compared to the previous year--a 16% increase in the last year. These increases build on gains over the last two years, reversing a 20-year decline. Compared to November 1996, there were a phenomenal 527,000 more bus riders on an average weekday in November 1998. More riders are predicted for 1999.
This explosion in ridership is good news for the future of buses in New York City. But it has taken its toll on both the transit system and its customers. That's reflected in two of three central findings of this report, which is a follow-up to our first-ever study last year of the state of the city's buses. The findings are based on a comprehensive review of official New York City Transit data, much of which had not been publicly released before the start of our reports. In most cases, we compare the period from October 1996-September 1997 to October 1997-September 1998.
Our first key finding is that bus service has grown worse in the last year under the tidal wave of new riders.
Bus service grew more irregular in the last year, with 36 of 40 key routes worsening on the problem that riders dread the most--bus bunching and gaps in service.
And progress has slowed in reducing service interruptions on buses caused by mechanical breakdowns. In 1997, buses traveled 17% more miles before experiencing a mechanical problem that interrupted service compared to 1996. But this progress has ground to a virtual halt, with just a 2% improvement in the first nine months of 1998. In two boroughs--the Bronx and Staten Island--the average distance traveled before an interruption in service due to mechanical problems actually grew worse. This likely reflects the introduction of several hundred older rehabilitated buses last year to help provide more service.
The result is poor service with many riders suffering long waits, elbow-in-the-ribs crowding, missed appointments and frayed nerves: Four out of ten buses on key routes arrived irregularly and off-schedule in the first nine months of 1998. Riders also suffered far more service interruptions in the first nine months of 1998 than was the case just six years ago. Buses traveled 40% fewer miles between service interruptions caused by mechanical problems in the first nine months of 1998, compared to 1992.
Second, poor performance is caused by two factors: inadequate amounts of service and the need for the City of New York to give greater priority to speed buses on congested city streets.
Service has deteriorated because too few buses are moving too many people. Poorer service is inevitable as long as service additions lag badly behind ridership gains. While ridership is expected to increase 36% in the three-year period between 1997 and 1999, transit officials plan to add only 10% more service at the same time.*
This report also shows that service is worst where traffic congestion is the worst, with Manhattan buses posting far and away the poorest regularity and on-time performance. The city simply does not provide enough exclusive bus lanes, does not adequately enforce the ones in place, and has not cracked down on private vehicles illegally using bus stops as personal parking spots.
The solutions--detailed in our 10-point program at the end of this report--are clear: Providing more service and giving buses greater priority to move through city traffic.
Our third finding is that New York City Transit made modest improvements in the last year in the passenger environment for bus riders. Transit managers deserve credit for making these gains while operating an expanding fleet. We found progress in three areas: the transit system kept buses cleaner, made more announcements and provided more correct and legible maps on buses. One measure grew slightly worse: the number of buses with scratched or clouded windows.
Two factors temper the progress found in the passenger environment. First, while there are more announcements on buses, there are still far too few: understandable and correct announcements are made only 38% of the time. Second, of the 92% of buses New York City Transit rates as clean, only 5% have no dirt. The remainder have "light dirt," which is defined as occasional "ground-in" spots.
With bus ridership at its highest levels since the early 1980's and growing, the Straphangers Campaign believes that now is the best time in many years to build support for a better bus system. It is in that spirit that we issue this report on the state of the buses.
Among the key specific findings of this report are:
1. Bus service has grown more irregular in the last year, with 36 of 40 key routes worsening on what bus riders dread the most--bus bunching and gaps in service. In the 1997-1998 period, average daily "regularity" of service--how evenly spaced buses arrive--on key routes monitored by New York City Transit was an awful 60%. That's down from 62% in 1996-1997. That means that four out of ten buses on these routes arrived either bunched together or with major gaps in service. Service grew more irregular in all the boroughs except the Bronx; Brooklyn buses experienced the biggest drop in regularity, from 61% to 57%.
2. In the October 1997-September 1998 period, on-time performance declined on 23 key routes and improved on 17. Overall, the rate of on-time performance for all 40 key routes remained the same--a dismal 62%, with nearly four out of ten buses off schedule.
4. In 1998, there was a slowdown in recent improvements in the rate of service interruptions caused by mechanical problems. While 1997 saw a 17% increase in the number of miles traveled by buses before mechanical problems caused service interruptions compared to 1996, there was only a 2% gain in the first nine months of 1998. The rate of miles traveled without service interruptions in 1998 increased in Brooklyn (by 7%), Queens (15%) and Manhattan (4%). But it actually grew worse in the Bronx (minus 4%) and Staten Island (minus 16%). That compares poorly to 1997, when bus service interruptions improved 10% or more in each of the five boroughs.
5. Riders suffered far more service interruptions in 1998 than was the case six years ago: Despite some gains since 1995, buses traveled 40% fewer miles between service interruptions in the first nine months of 1998 than they did in 1992. The "mean distance between service interruptions"--how far a bus travels before a mechanical problem interrupts service--was every 2,321 miles in the first nine months of 1998. That's a far worse performance than 1992, when the service interruption rate was every 3,859 miles--although it's better than the rock-bottom year of 1995, when the service interruption rate was every 1,840 miles.
6. New York City Transit made modest improvements in the last year in the passenger environment for bus riders. Comparing 1996-1997 to 1997-1998:
7. There was a range of performance in the bus passenger environment among the boroughs. For example, Manhattan division buses had the most buses with no scratched or clouded windows (65%); Queens the least (44%). Buses in the Manhattan division had the most correct and understandable announcements (44%); Staten Island the least (31%).
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